<p><strong>The Dutch housing market remained resilient in 2026-Q3 despite rising mortgage rates, worsening affordability and geopolitical uncertainty. House prices continued to rise, mortgage activity remained strong and housing supply indicators improved further. At the same time, investors continued to reduce their exposure to the rental market, while rents continued to increase faster than both inflation and house prices.</strong></p>

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<h2>House prices continue to rise as market activity remains resilient</h2>

<p>The Dutch House Price Index (HPI) reached 156.4 in 2026-Q3, up 3.4% YoY and 1.0% QoQ. While house prices continued to increase, growth moderated slightly compared to the previous quarter. Housing transactions remained relatively robust at approximately 62,000 sales, up 4.3% QoQ but down 1.7% YoY.</p>

<p>Regional differences persisted. Friesland and Drenthe recorded the strongest annual house price growth at 5.7%, while Noord-Holland saw the weakest increase at 1.8%. Amsterdam continued to lag the national average, with house prices rising just 1.0% YoY.</p>

<h2>Mortgage demand remains strong despite higher rates</h2>

<p>Mortgage activity remained resilient throughout the quarter. Approximately 142,000 mortgage applications were submitted via HDN, representing a 6.1% increase compared to 2025-Q3. Purchase-related applications increased by 8.3% YoY. Year-to-date mortgage originations reached EUR 130.2 billion through September, around 6% higher than during the same period last year. Total outstanding Dutch mortgage debt rose to EUR 917 billion, up 5.0% YoY, while the mortgage debt-to-GDP ratio remained broadly stable at 77%.</p>

<h2>Continuous improvement of housing supply indicators</h2>

<p>Housing supply indicators strengthened further during the quarter. Approximately 89,000 building permits were issued in the first nine months of 2026, already exceeding the total number issued during all of 2025. The construction pipeline expanded to approximately 234,000 units, up 13% YoY, while new-build completions increased to approximately 48,200 homes during the first nine months of the year, 4% more than during the same period in 2025.</p>

<p>Although a significant portion of the permit growth was driven by an exceptional spike in June, the broader pipeline continues to point to improving supply conditions over the coming years.</p>

<h2>Investor sell-off continues as rental market contracts</h2>

<p>Investor divestment remained a defining trend in the Dutch housing market. During 2026-Q2, investors sold more than 6,400 homes net to owner-occupiers, further reducing the size of the rental stock. Meanwhile, the unregulated rental market continued to shrink. Approximately 13,500 homes were newly listed for rent in 2026-Q3, down around 13% in the same period a year earlier. Average rents increased by 4.4% YoY to EUR 20.92 per square meter, continuing to outpace both inflation and house price growth.</p>

<h2>Mortgage spreads tighten despite rising funding costs</h2>

<p>Dutch owner-occupied mortgage rates increased by an average of 54 basis points during 2026-Q3 and were approximately 80 basis points higher than a year earlier, driven by rising swap rates and renewed market volatility.</p>

<p>Notably, mortgage spreads tightened by approximately 20 basis points during the quarter, as lenders absorbed part of the increase in funding costs rather than passing it on fully to borrowers. Following quarter-end, spreads widened again as swap rates stabilized.</p>

<p>The ability to absorb higher funding costs differs across lenders. Banks continue to benefit from large savings balances that provide relatively inexpensive funding, while lenders funded by institutional investors face greater pressure on margins. As a result, mortgage rates could remain under upward pressure even if swap rates stabilize. Buy-to-let mortgage rates followed a similar pattern, increasing by an average of 46 basis points during the quarter.</p>

<h2>Sustainability financing gains further momentum</h2>

<p>Sustainability remained an important theme during the quarter. From 1 January 2027, NHG plans to automatically include at least EUR 20,000 for energy-efficiency improvements when homes with energy label E or worse are purchased. The initiative follows extensive engagement by Dynamic Credit with NHG on incorporating sustainability financing more structurally into the Dutch mortgage framework. The proposal marks a shift from an opt-in approach towards making energy-efficiency improvements a standard part of mortgage financing for less energy-efficient homes. Additional sustainability developments included new government plans to tighten heating standards from 2029 and additional support measures for homeowners facing foundation repair challenges.</p>

<h2>Outlook: positive fundamentals, but increasing headwinds</h2>

<p>Dutch financial institutions generally revised their 2026 house price forecasts upward following stronger-than-expected market performance during the first half of the year. Outlooks for 2027, however, remain mixed. Higher mortgage rates, affordability pressures and geopolitical uncertainty are increasingly cited as headwinds. At the same time, the structural housing shortage, improving supply pipeline and continued economic resilience continue to support the market. Most forecasters expect house prices to remain on a positive trajectory in both 2026 and 2027, albeit at a more moderate pace than in recent years.</p>

<p><strong>Disclaimer</strong></p>

<p>Dynamic Credit Partners Europe B.V. (‘Dynamic Credit’) is a registered investment company (beleggingsondernemingsvergunning) and a registered financial service provider (financiëel dienstverlener) with the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (Autoriteit Financiële Markten). This presentation is intended for informational purposes only and is subject to change without any notice.The information provided is purely of an indicative nature and is not intended as an offer, investment advice, solicitation or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security or financial instrument. Dynamic Credit may in the future issue, other communications that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein. Dynamic Credit cannot be held liable for the content of this presentation or any decision made by a third party on the basis of this presentation. Potential investors are advised to consult their independent investment and tax adviser before making an investment decision. An investment involves risks. The value of securities may fluctuate. Past returns are no guarantee for future returns.</p>